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A CTA bus drives on Pulaski Road while snow falls in North Park on Feb. 17, 2022. Credit: Colin Boyle/Block Club Chicago

CHICAGO — A winter storm has Chicago in its crosshairs Friday — but experts are still unsure how much snow it’ll end up dropping on its inhabitants.

Whatever it’ll be, it’s already on its way: The impending winter weather system is currently dumping snow over the Rocky Mountains, dipping down toward Colorado and will soon pick up moisture from the Gulf Coast — “which is what will really start to fuel it,” said Dr. Scott Collis, an atmospheric scientist at the Argonne National Laboratory.

The system will “rapidly intensify” as it soaks up the moisture and heads toward Chicago — making it tough to predict its severity, Collis said. The phenomenon is what meteorologists call a “bomb cyclone,” he said.

For now, Collis could only give a rough estimate of snow totals: Counties west of Chicago could get a foot-plus of snow, most city dwellers will see 5-10 inches and those Downtown and along the Lakefront “could expect to be disappointed” with maybe just a few inches, Collis said.

“It’s like someone flipped the switch and decided winter was finally here,” Collis said. “After the mild weather we’ve had, this is going to be one heck of a shock.”

Those forecasts are slightly reduced from earlier this week, when experts said Chicago could see as much as a foot of snow or more.

Dibs are set up as neighbors shovel in Irving Park as snow continues to fall across Chicago during Winter Storm Landon on Feb. 2, 2022. Credit: Colin Boyle/Block Club Chicago

The winter storm system will collide with a Lake Michigan warmer than its surroundings, dimming the possibility of heavy snowfall near the lake shore.

“Temperatures on the lake are still warmer, putting Chicago more on the rain-snow line,” Collis said. “There’s still uncertainty and snow will not spread evenly over the Chicago area … This system is really a hard one to forecast.”

Chicago’s National Weather Service on Thursday afternoon upgraded its “winter storm watch” to a “winter storm warning,” meaning the threat of hazardous conditions has moved from theoretical to “occurring or imminent.”

Snow will fall heaviest Friday afternoon, which will bring “the worst conditions of the event,” according to the weather service.

Geronimo the dog enjoys the sub-zero temperatures and blizzard conditions in the Loop on Dec. 23, 2022. Credit: Colin Boyle/Block Club Chicago

Tough Sledding Ahead With Severe Cold On The Horizon

Metreologists agree there will be a brutally cold stretch on the tail end of the storm starting Saturday.

Atmospheric conditions will track the storm further north, bringing in strong winds over 35 miles per hour Saturday that will whip snow around and impact visibility, Collis said. Temperatures will drastically dip and wind chill on Sunday could be as low as 25 degrees below zero, he said.

It could be a week or more until temperatures start to be seasonable normal for January, “which is already our coldest month of the year,” Collis said.

“But with the winds and the cold, dry air, you get less cloudiness, so if there’s any silver lining, we’ll start to see some more sun,” he said.

Contrary to popular belief, following the near miss earlier this week, Collis said the days of massive snowstorms are not behind Chicagoans.

“As climate change warms the planet, we’re going to see shortened seasons of snow, but when it’s the coldest in our core of January and February, we can expect to see more snow systems,” he said. “We’re getting more extreme shifts in weather patterns.”


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